Dubai Crisis

Dubai Crisis – Its impact on India.

On 25^th November 2009 Wednesday, Dubai said it would reschedule debt on two state owned entities delay payments for six months.

On 26^th November 2009 Thursday, rumors of a possible default on Dubai sovereign debt started to hit markets. The same day, the Dubai ruling family clarified concerns but credit default swaps reflecting the chances of a default kept rising.

The result was a sharp turn in sentiment which led to investors selling risk assets across equities, commodities and currencies and forcing regulators across the world including India to sit up and take notice.

On 27^th November 2009 Friday, Dubai's debt crisis rattled world financial markets Friday, raising concerns that some banks could further tighten lending and stall the global economic recovery.

The possible spillover effects centered on fears that international banks could suffer big losses if Dubai's investment arm defaulted on its $60 billion debt. Stock and commodity markets tumbled in New York, London and Asia as investors flocked to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. But earlier concerns that the crisis might trigger another financial meltdown seemed to ease after some analysts downplayed the risks for U.S. banks, which are thought to have little exposure to the Middle Eastern city-state. U.S. stocks fell sharply but rebounded from their lows as investors concluded that the damage might be contained. The Dow Jones industrial average lost about 155 points, or roughly 1.5 percent, in a shortened trading day, and other stock averages also sank. Oil prices plunged as much as 7 percent before recovering some ground later in the day.

European banks appeared to be at most risk if Dubai World can't pay its bills. London-based lenders HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered could face losses of $611 million and $177 million respectively, according to early estimates from analysts at Goldman Sachs. Both have substantial Middle East operations.

South Korea estimated the country's financial institutions have just $88 million in exposure. Construction firms from Japan, Australia and South Korea behind Dubai's recent development boom also might be on the hook.

Among U.S. banks, Citigroup Inc. had $1.9 billion in exposure to the United Arab Emirates as of 2008, according to a JPMorgan research note. But it's unclear how much of that was related to Dubai.

What went wrong?

Dubai is part of the United Arab Emirates, seven city-states which have separate ruling families, separate budgets, but security, immigration and foreign policies in common. Abu Dhabi has nearly all the UAE's oil. To keep up, Dubai from the 1950s on diversified its economy into ports, trade, services and finance, largely successfully. But its liquidity-fuelled real estate and tourism binge in the last decade may have been one step too far.

The property crash hit Dubai at the time - house prices fell 50 pc in six months. Nakheel was known to be in trouble. But investors assumed that as a state-owned company it would not default on its debt. The government refused to issue detailed statements of how it was to handle Dubai World's debt problems, and rounded on those who said that the crash had undermined Dubai's development model. This encouraged a belief that a rescue package was already in place, probably funded by Abu Dhabi. The statement on Wednesday that the government was asking for a six-month standstill on repayments implied the rescue was in doubt.

The emirate has said it has $80bn of debts, though some analysts say the true figure could be double that. Dubai World, the state-owned holding company whose bail-out plans triggered the current crisis, has liabilities of about $60bn, though only part of that is debt. The main problem is its real estate subsidiary Nakheel, which has huge bonds coming due, including an Islamic bond for $3.5bn in December. It appears to have little cash flow to meet payments - as well as relying on debt, it also sold most developments off-plan, with new developments now on hold.

As the first chart shows, Dubai’s sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) are soaring in the wake of the news that Dubai World wants a standstill agreement on roughly $60 billion of debt.  Even though Dubai World is a corporation seeking the agreement, the markets are clearly treating this as a sovereign debt issue.

As the second chart shows, this is causing a “contagion” among the credit worthiness of other gulf sovereign debt.

Dubai Crisis and its effect on India:

India is supposed to have a very less impact as far as the Dubai Crisis is concerned. India will continue to grow at 6.5%, the reason being Indian economy is driven primarily by the domestic demand.

Effect on Banking Sector:

Banks understood to be having lending exposure to Dubai — Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India — said their exposure to real estate firms in the Gulf region was either nil or insignificant. 

"We have only 7-8 per cent of our total loan-book in the entire Gulf region, which amounts to Rs 10,000 crore. These accounts are well maintained and are unlikely to cause any kind of impact on the balance sheet,” - Bank of Baroda's Chairman and Managing Director M D Mallya.

Country's largest lender, State Bank of India,  also clarified that it did not see any concerns emerging on account of the Dubai crisis as the bank has only minimal exposure in the UAE, bulk of which are short-term loans. 

Effect on Real Estate Sector:

A majority of big real estate developers in India said they are insulated from the financial crisis in Dubai and it will not have any impact in the country's property market. 

DLF, Unitech, Parsvnath Developers and Emaar MGF all said they have no exposure in Dubai, while Omaxe said it has an investment of Rs 40 crore which it has asked for refund. 

Effect on Indian workers in Dubai:

It's well known that when Dubai sneezes, south India, especially Kerala, catches more than just a cold. Last September, when Lehman Brothers collapsed triggering the great recession, the arrivals at Chennai, Hyderabad and Thiruvananthapuram airports wore a grim look. The news of Dubai World's inability to repay the $59 billion debt has triggered similar fears among the relatives of immigrants back home. 

UAE is the favorite destination for a maximum number of overseas Indian workers - 3.4 lakh people went to the country in 2008 - but the number has been fast declining as Indian workers are unable to get new contracts or extensions in the country that's in the grip of recession. Over 5 lakh Indians have returned from Dubai since September 2008, of which two lakh are Malayalees. Almost 60% of these people are technical or non-technical skills professionals. Over 50 lakh Indians work in the Middle East of which 20 lakh are from Kerala.

To sum up Dubai effect on India, we can say that the real impact will be limited. Remittance flows from Dubai, which account for about 10 per cent of overall remittances, could see a slowdown in the short term. Capital flows may see a mild reversal turning the equity and currency markets volatile but corporate exposure to Dubai appears to be limited to a handful of realty and infrastructure companies. And barring a few banks like Bank of Baroda which has operations in Dubai, the Indian banking sector seems relatively insulated.

Please check the video on this link:
http://connect.in.com/dubai-crisis-2009/play-video-dubai-debt-crisis-likely-to-hit-wokers-from-kerala-bac58209c3229d7c29d723a79ac670b8b8865310.html

Can Dubai Survive?

Dubai is still seen as the premier place to do business in the Middle East and beyond. It is a preferred base for not just Arab but Pakistani, Iranian and even Indian businesses, due to the wider region's political uncertainty. Its reputation for liberal attitudes helps. But events like this will have damaging effects on its reputation for economic competence, which the emirate's rulers will now have to work hard to restore.

However, what will be the real impact of the Dubai issue will depend upon how the newly appointed Dubai World's chief Aidan Berkett will handle the restructuring of this investment and property giant. But it has triggered much awaited correction in global equities, which can last longer then expected. So traders be cautious, lighten the long positions and wait for situation to calm down or let the restructuring happen or help to flow in from friends and neighbors of Dubai. For now, extreme caution is warranted.

"We shouldn't react to instant news like this. One lesson that we learnt from the (global financial) crisis is that we must study the developments and measure the extent of the problem and hence study the impact on India,"

-- By Dr D Subbarao, Governor of RBI.

What Does Topless Meeting Mean?

Please don’t think other way round…………

Topless meeting is a meeting where, participants are not allowed to use laptops. A topless meeting organizer can also ban the use of smart phones, cell phones and other electronic devices. The purpose of this is to create an environment free from distraction, to foster enhanced focus and to generate more discussions.

Topless meetings were originally popularized at high tech companies where personal computers and smart phones first began creeping into company meetings. It can also be used to describe classrooms that have banned the use of laptops for note taking, which can be a distraction to students sitting around the laptop user. 

Lease Rent Discounting

When we think about Project Financing we consider various means of finance like FCCB, ECB, NCD, PE, and so on. These means of finance no doubt is very effective and economical, but not every company is blessed with good financial and good track record. In addition to this the current financial crisis has made banks very cautious about financing to new and small corporate. Hence Lease Rent Discounting (LRD) can be considered as one of the best and simplest means of finance for new and needy corporate.

Lease Rental Discounting:

(Loan against Future Rent Receivables /Loan against Rental Income)

Lease rental discounting offers immediate liquidity, against commercial property, to lessors/ property owners who have leased out their properties.

This product is aimed at providing Term Loan to owners of commercial or residential properties who have let them out to reputed companies Commercial, Industrial, Software, Multinational Companies), Banks, Financial- Institutions, Insurance Companies etc. on lease basis thus having fixed rent receivables.

These receivables can be clubbed and discounted at attractive rates. The property owners can then utilize these funds for any purpose including meeting business and personal needs for generating further assets, which can yield higher returns for themselves. Further, the funds could also be deployed for expansion of their business activities. This will give a source to accelerate the rotation of their funds.

Information evaluated in the product offering includes:

Lessee details

Lessor details

Property profile including criticality of the premises for the lessee's operations

Deal structure and

Cash flow pattern envisaged in the agreement(s)

The actual discounted amount will be determined after taking into account factors like rent receivables during the unexpired period of tenancy, tax deducted at source and other. 

Rate of Interest:

The Rate of Interest on LRD however is very expensive. It varies between 13% to 15%.

FAQ on Lease Rent Discounting:

Q. Who is the loan meant for?

The product is designed to finance the business needs of:

Sole Proprietors / Proprietorship firms

Partnership Firms

Pvt. Ltd. and Public Limited Companies

Professionals – Doctors, Architects, Chartered Accountants, Business Consultants, Business entities in the turnover range INR 90 lakhs to 110 Crores are eligible.

Q. What is the maximum loan amount offered for LRD?

You can avail a maximum loan of INR 22 crores (May vary from Bank to Bank)

Q. What is the maximum tenure of the loan?

The maximum tenure for which you can avail the facility is determined by the lease tenor and is capped at 12 years. (May vary from Bank to Bank)

Q. What do I need to give as security?

Rent receipts are payable by the tenant directly to an escrow account with Bank.
The underlying tenanted property, which may be commercial property or quasi commercial property will be taken as collateral. No plot, self construction or under construction properties will be allowed.

Q. What is the interest rate on the facility?

This may vary between 13% to 15%. (This will vary from Bank to Bank)

Q. What are the basic documents required for applying for the facility?

Lease Agreement

Bank statements for last 6 months

3 year financials including Profit & Loss (P&L) Statement , Balance sheet and Income Tax returns.

Documents related to establishment of entity, identity and address proof documents.

Property title documents

     Please follow the following link to Lease Rent Discounting Template created and published by me on Finance 3.0:

      http://www.finance30.com/forum/topics/lease-rent-discounting

FCCB Basics

What is Foreign Currency Convertible Bond (FCCB)?

A Foreign Currency Convertible Bond (FCCB) is a type of convertible bond issued in a currency different than the issuer's domestic currency. 

In other words, the money being raised by the issuing company is in the form of a foreign currency. It gives two options:

a   One is, to get the regular interest and principal and

b)  The other is to convert the bond in to equities. It is a hybrid between bond and stock.

How FCCB is different to Company while raising though Equity and Debt?

Equity

Immediate Equity dilution, and

Dividend distribution

Debt

High Interest rate in borrowing

High Coupon rate in Bond

ECB is limited to capital goods, capacity augmentation, and overseas acquisitions

FCCB

Very low coupon/interest as compared to debt

No immediate dilution of equity

No cash payment in good market conditions

All transactions in foreign currency

ADVANTAGES TO ISSUER	ADVANTAGES TO INVESTORS
·         It may appear to be more stable and predictable than their domestic currency.	·         Safety of guaranteed payments on the bond.
·         It gives issuers the ability to access investment capital available in foreign markets.	·         Can take advantage of any large price appreciation in the company's stock
·         Companies can use the process to break into foreign markets.	·         Redeemable at maturity if not converted
·         The bond acts like both a debt and equity instrument. Like bonds it makes regular coupon and principal payments, but these bonds also give the bondholder the option to convert the bond into stock.	·         Easily marketable as investors enjoys option of conversion in to equity if resulting to capital appreciation.
·         It is a low cost debt as the interest rates given to FCC Bonds are normally 30-50 percent lower than the market rate because of its equity component.	·         To bring down their exposure in one country by diversifying their portfolio.
·         Conversion of bonds into stocks takes place at a premium price to market price. Conversion price is fixed when the bond is issued. So, lower dilution of the company stocks.	·         Investors buy FCCBs not as an instrument of debt but for the lure of equity.

Are there any disadvantages to the Investors And Company?

Yes, like any financial instrument, FCCBs also have disadvantages. Some of these are:

ü  The exchange risk is more in FCCBs as interest on bond would be payable in foreign currency. Thus companies with low debt equity ratios, large forex earnings potential only opted for FCCBs.

ü  FCCBs mean creation of more debt and a forex outgo in terms of interest which is in foreign exchange.

ü  In case of convertible bond the interest rate is low (around 3 to 4 per cent) but there is exchange risk on interest as well as principal if the bonds are not converted in to equity.

ü  If the stock price plummets, investors will not go for conversion but redemption. So, companies have to refinance to fulfill the redemption promise which can hit earnings.

ü  It will remain as debt in the balance sheet until conversion.

RBI recent Guidelines:

In December 2008, RBI relaxed guidelines of FCCBs to companies by allowing premature buy-back of FCCBs through rupee resources

On March 13, 2009, RBI further liberalized the norms by extending the deadline for companies to complete the buyback by nine months from March 31, 2009 to December 31, 2009

In April 2009, under approval route, RBI relaxed amount of buy back from $50 Mn of the redemption value per company to $100 Mn

The FCCBs bought back/repurchased from the holders must be cancelled and should not be re-issued or re-sold.

In detailed analysis on the same ………….

RBI's recent policy changes: FCCB buyback route

In order to cushion the effects of the global financial slowdown on the Indian economy, the RBI announced that it will consider proposals for FCCB buyback under the approval route if funding for such buyback is financed either out of:

• Existing foreign currency resources of the company held in India or abroad; or

• Fresh external commercial borrowing (ECB).

The RBI's quick fix move has been viewed in some quarters as inadequate because:

• FCCB issuers did not have adequate overseas foreign currency resources;

• It would be difficult to raise more ECB especially for discharging existing debt; and

• The buyback, permissible under the approval route, would still require the RBI's approval which may be time consuming and discretionary.

In a circular of 8 December 2008 (Circular)2, the RBI further liberalized the buyback process by permitting FCCB buyback under the automatic route and also permitting use of Indian Rupee proceeds for buyback (subject to certain conditions).

The Circular permits FCCB issuers to buy back FCCBs under the automatic route and approval route subject to the following conditions:

	Specific conditions for Automatic route		Specific Conditions for Approval Route
Internal accruals	Buyback of FCCBs out of internal accruals is not permitted.		Buyback of FCCBs out of internal accruals is permitted subject to prior approval of the RBI and fulfillment of conditions listed below.
Discount on book value	The buyback of the FCCB is done at a discount of at least 15 per cent on the book value.		The buyback value of the FCCB is done at a minimum discount of 25 per cent on the book value.
Funding for buyback	Funds used for buyback are either out of: • existing foreign currency funds held either in India (including funds held in an "Exchange Earners" Foreign Currency Account with an AD3 in India) or abroad; and/or • Fresh ECB is raised in conformity with the current ECB norms. If the fresh ECB is coterminous with the residual maturity of the original FCCB and is for less than three years, the all-in-cost ceiling should not exceed six month LIBOR plus 200 bps; and in other cases as per the existing guidelines of the RBI.		The funds used for the buyback are: • Out of internal accruals, to be evidenced by the statutory auditor of the issuer and a bank's4 certificate; and • The total amount of buyback does not exceed US$50m of the redemption value per company.
General conditions for FCCB Buyback applicable under both routes:
Compliance		The FCCBs that are proposed to be bought back should have been issued in compliance with the extant guidelines and registered with the RBI. Further, the issuer should not have any pending proceedings for contravention of the Foreign Exchange Management Act 1999 (FEMA).
Cancellation of FCCBs		The FCCBs bought back must be cancelled and cannot be re-issued or resold.
FCCB holder's consent		The right of buyback is vested with the FCCB issuer but the FCCB holder's consent will be required for actual buyback. This would mean that the FCCB buyback will not have any effect on the FCCB holders not opting for the buyback.
Escrow account		FCCB issuers are required to open an escrow account with the branch or subsidiary of an Indian bank overseas or an international bank to ensure that the funds proposed to be used for the buyback are earmarked and not used for any other purpose.
Filing requirements		After completion of the buyback procedure the FCCB issuer is required to make the following filings with the AD: • ECB2 form prescribed under the guidelines issued from time to time by the RBI under the FEMA on ECBs (ECB Guidelines); and • Report stating details of the buyback including outstanding amount of the FCCBs, book value of the FCCBs, rate at which the FCCBs were bought back, amount paid and the source of funds.

Points to ponder:

·         Increase (from $50M to $100M) in limit of premature buy-back of FCCBs using Indian currency - Very less impact because of unavailability of sellers and a scarcity of funds with Indian companies.

·         Another option is to buy back those bonds using foreign currency reserves or through fresh borrowing in foreign currency (No limit) - But raising funds in foreign markets at this moment is a big challenge (Global credit crunch).

·         So it benefits only those companies who have enough cash in their internal accruals - But there are not many companies.

Parting thought …

"Some debts are fun when you are acquiring them, but none are fun when you set about retiring them.”  

~ Ogden Nash